Event Day Games's Blog

College Football – Boise State, USC, Florida and More!

Event Day Games — Tue, 18 Aug 2009 00:33:34 +0000

The good folks over at College Football News have this week’s mailbag with lots of different questions, check them out.

The average ranking for the Boise State football team from all other rating services is 13th. The worst is 26th. CFN ranks them at 43d. You are either the smartest bunch of analysts, or you’re the dumbest. – mcknight77

I’m so sick of your f***ing bulls**t and CFN ranking Boise State low every year only to have the Broncos stick it straight up you’re a**. When are you going to realize that Boise State is as good as anyone in the country. How many more double digit win seasons do they need to have before you get it. You make me sick. – JSL

A: Don’t we always kiss Boise State butt for being the unbelievable model of consistency (check out the CFN Boise State Preview)? Don’t we always praise the program for putting up great records year after year? The Broncos are going to finish with ten-plus wins yet again, and they’re going to be in the mix for the BCS because the great record will mean a high ranking, but that doesn’t mean the team deserves to be among the elite.

It’s not just Boise State when it comes to the ranking vs. team talent discussion. Penn State isn’t nearly as good as it was last year, but it’ll probably be in the national title discussion if it wins all the games it’ll be favored in. The Nittany Lions play no one in non-conference play. The same goes for Texas, who decided to take the year off when it comes to decent non-Big 12 competition, but more on that in a moment. The same goes for Florida, at least until the season-ender against Florida State. That’s why it’s important to not be blinded by the win-loss record and go by what the teams are doing on the field. That goes more for Boise State than it does for almost anyone else because of the weak league it plays in.

The consistency has given the Broncos a certain measure of respect with Sports Illustrated ranking them ninth to start the season (but always take what SI does when it comes to college football rankings with a grain of salt). However, there are reasons we have BSU lower from an average defensive front seven, at least compared to the top 20 teams in America, a decent, but not elite offensive line, and a slightly above-average receiving corps. Of course, it’s all relative. This is a good team, potentially a very good team, but it’ll have to come up with a win against Oregon to start the season to prove it really does belong in the top 15-to-25. And yes, Boise state really does have to prove it.

Yes, Boise beat Oregon last year, but that wasn’t anywhere near the same Duck team that was so dominant late in the season. With quarterback issues and major problems with its overall consistency, Oregon almost lost to an awful Purdue team the week before losing to the Broncos. In the other big tests, Boise State lost last year’s Poinsettia Bowl to TCU, and lost to a bad Washington team, Colt Brennan and Hawaii, and Chris Johnson and East Carolina in the Hawaii Bowl in 2007. Of course, the 2006 season was special, helped by a great win over Oregon State that was glossed over after the win over Oklahoma in the epic Fiesta Bowl, but in 2005, Boise State lost to Georgia, Oregon State, and in the MPC Computers Bowl to Boston College. With a loss to Louisville in the 2004 Liberty Bowl, Boise State has lost four out of its last five bowl games with the one win, the Sooner game, coming when every trick play and every gimmick worked. The point? Beating up the WAC is one thing, but Boise State has to come through when the lights are on. Again, the Oregon game will provide the chance on September 3rd.

I’m a huge college football fan, and in particular the SEC. I’ve been to all the SEC stadiums and most of the league’s big games. But right now, a certain airline has great deals out of Atlanta. So, what games should I try to go to experience the best of college football outside the south?– Scott D.

A: USC at Notre Dame on October 17^th. If both teams are unbeaten, the place will be rocking and if you’re a die-hard college football fan you need to experience a game in South Bend when the Irish are actually good. From Atlanta to Chicago O’Hare on Delta (I’m assuming that’s the airline you’re referring to) is just $188. Or, you can get to Dallas that weekend from Atlanta to see the year’s nastiest battle: Texas vs. Oklahoma. The Red River Rivalry will be worth more than the price of admission. If you’re really feeling adventurous, it’s just $641 to go from Atlanta to Honolulu to watch Wisconsin play Hawaii on December 5th. (Wow … that really is a sweet price.) Why? Outside of it being December and Hawaii, I’ve heard UH games provide as unique a college football experience as you can imagine.

As an Florida State fan I think the ACC divisional alignment, to put it mildly, sucks. I have my own vision of how the conference should go, but I am interested in how someone with no ACC allegiances thinks it should look.
North – Miami, Boston College, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, Maryland, Virginia
South – Florida State, Georgia Tech, Clemson, Duke, NC State, North Carolina

(Fiu Note … right now, the divisions are BC, Clemson, FSU, Maryland, NC State and Wake Forest in the Atlantic, and Duke, Georgia Tech, Miami, North Carolina, Virginia, and Virginia Tech in the Coastal.)

How did they (the ACC) end up with what they have now? Was it a series of compromises and agreements between the ADs and schools or an iron fist ruling from the head honchos in Greensboro. Is it crazy to want to kick out BC and replace them with WVU, TV market share be damned? – SB

A: Let me get this straight; you want to get rid of Boston College, the program that played in the last two ACC title games? And what’s wrong with the current divisional alignment? The ACC sent ten teams to bowl games, had four teams that went 5-3 in league play, six teams that went 4-4, and Virginia went 3-5 in the most even, unpredictable conference in America. There’s an almost perfect balance between the two divisions, considering Wake Forest and Duke need to be broken up considering they’re small, smart, private schools, and Florida State and Miami need to be broken up just in case they become great again. You don’t want a Texas-Oklahoma thing happening in one division. I’m not exactly sure how your proposal would make anything better for a league that has achieved every conference commissioner’s dream of relatively high-level parity.

You should provide some justification for this VERY bold 9-3 prediction on your Texas Preview.– Ryan M.

You people are f***ing idiots. You picked texas to 8-4 last year and now this year you pick us to go 9-3 with three gaem losing streak and losing to Mizzou. Complete f***ing buffoons. I know most don’t like UT but get a f***ing grip. – JoJo

A: Ohhhhhhh, no you don’t. I still get hate mail from USC fans for picking Texas to win the 2006 Rose Bowl even though I was dead-on right. I also get an angry e-mail every other day from Oklahoma fans for arguing the Texas case in the Longhorn-Sooner debate of 2008. So no, we didn’t predict Texas to go 9-3 out of anything other than an educated guess.

So how did we come up with this? To start, Texas going 9-3, when it has the talent to do so much more, isn’t exactly going out on a major limb. Last year was an aberration for a Longhorn program that lost three games in 2007, 2006, 2003, and 2000. Traditionally, Texas rebounds well after losing to Oklahoma, but this year, going to Missouri, who we think will reload in a big hurry, is a nasty trip to take after the Red River Rivalry. With that said, it’s all about momentum. If Texas beats OU, forget about everything else and assume Mack Brown and company gets the job done. No matter what happens against OU and Mizzou, that game at Oklahoma State is as tough as they come in what should be a tremendous shootout. So it’s not too crazy to think that Texas could lose to both Oklahoma schools, considering the Sooners and Cowboys are top-five caliber, and the loss at Mizzou is one of those find-an-upset-that-makes-sense-in-August picks.

Is the Longhorn secondary and running backs going to be appreciably better? Maybe, but I’m a firm believer that teams often press too hard when they’re looking at a season as national-title-or-bust. To me, from everyone I’ve talked to, it seems like Texas is thinking Pasadena instead of the journey it’ll take to get there. By the way, my conversation with Colt McCoy will be up next week.

I love what you do for college football but I couldn’t help but think that you have lost your mind entering the 2009 season. I just noticed that you picked Auburn to beat Alabama. That is a complete joke! It will take a team who can throw the football and is at worst comparable to Alabama on the offensive and defensive lines. Auburn has none of those things. They will have one of the worst offensive lines in the SEC and their QB situation is a joke. They will be lucky to make a bowl and I can promise you that one of their wins won’t be over the Tide. – Michael H.

A: Remember, there are always, always, bizarre upsets that come out of the blue each and every year. When doing the preseason picks, we look for the perfect storm of conditions to predict an upset. Is Auburn better than Alabama? No, but the Tigers should be much better and much sharper by the end of the season, all the pressure will be on the Tide (this could be Auburn’s BCS Championship game), and it’s at Auburn, where Bama hasn’t won since 2001. And then there’s the timing. Alabama has just six days between the scrimmage against Chattanooga and the Iron Bowl, while Auburn has close to two weeks off to rest up and prepare. And yes, I have lost my mind.

Out of the schools with slightly lower spotlight (i.e. not USC, Texas, UF), who has the best combo of defense of running game in the country? – Scott G.

A: Going into the season, the top slightly lower BCS teams with the best combination of defense and running game are (and I’m not counting Georgia, who we have at No. 5 overall) …

1. Virginia Tech
2. California
3. West Virginia
4. Georgia Tech
5. Clemson
6. Pitt
7. Iowa
8. Colorado
9. Florida State
10. Missouri

Top ten defense-running game combinations among the non-BCS teams.

1. Utah
2. TCU
3. Boise State
4. BYU
5. Fresno State
6. Southern Miss
7. Arkansas State
8. Louisiana Tech
9. Nevada
10. Northern Illinois

Why does a juggernaut like Florida get a pass on their weak OOC schedule yet you try to beat up a Minnesota for similar scheduling? Please don’t give me that garbage about the SEC strength of schedule. They miss both Alabama and Ole Miss. – – Vincent T.

A: Did I or anyone at CFN “beat up” Minnesota for scheduling at Syracuse, Air Force, and California? I don’t think Florida is getting much of a free pass for its mediocre non-conference schedule, but there is the game against Florida State to close out the regular season. The Troy game isn’t anything to worry too much about, but the Trojans should win the BCS and came within a fourth quarter collapse of beating LSU in Baton Rouge last season. No one is questioning how good the No. 1 team in America is, and yes, you might not like me bringing it up, but it matters that UF will get tested in conference play against LSU (in Death Valley) and Georgia, to go along with the rest of the SEC slate. The only thing you can reasonably ask out of any BCS team is one good game against another BCS team, and Florida has it. However, that doesn’t mean it doesn’t suck that the Gators are playing Charleston Southern and FIU.

Coverage by media of Ohio State v. Oklahoma the past several years. We here in Buckeye country feel like we’ve been beaten up unfairly. Appreciate your efforts to lend perspective. Also seems that no one complains about having to see Oklahoma in the National Championship game (or in any big game for that matter) despite their amazing streak of bowl losses (LSU, USC, Boise State, West Virginia, Florida). The question is not whether OSU fans are too sensitive (Answer: Yes, we are), but rather is OU getting a pass? - John S.

A: What was the ruling in Ohio State v. Oklahoma? I thought Justice von Schamann ruled in favor of the Sooners. What’s interesting about the phenomenon of OSU getting bashed and OU getting a pass is that the Sooners have been dead dogs in some of these losses. To a man, the 2006 Buckeyes admit they came into the national championship game fat and lazy. They weren’t that bad against LSU in the 2008 BCS Championship, they were in it until the fourth quarter, and they pushed Texas to the wall in last year’s Fiesta Bowl. Of course, the blowout loss to USC early last year didn’t help the national perception, but as I’ve written before, about 115 other teams would’ve gotten obliterated that day, too.

Meanwhile, Oklahoma has lost five straight BCS games and isn’t getting hammered nearly as hard as the Buckeyes are. Last year’s national title game was a war, and there’s absolutely no reason to dog OU in any way for losing to the Gators. But OU flat-out quit in the 55-19 loss to USC in the 2005 Orange Bowl, didn’t wake up until it was too late in the 2007 Fiesta Bowl loss to Boise State, and was inexplicably flat in the 2008 Fiesta Bowl loss to West Virginia even though everyone was talking about the gaffe to the Broncos for 366 days. Style points count. Oklahoma looks like the type of team that can play with anyone in America, while Ohio State slogs its way through win after win. Even so, OSU is getting the benefit of the doubt in the preseason polls considering there’s so much turnover.

Would a one-loss Florida team get the nod for the national title game over an undefeated team from another conference? I’m going to pick on the Big East. Even though I think they’re stronger than they get credit for, the Big East won’t have a preseason top-10 team. Let’s say Florida loses one game to LSU, then beats them like a drum in Atlanta for the SEC Championship, while Texas and West Virginia go undefeated. Would the Mountaineers be able to break into the fortress that is the pre-season #1 and #2 slots? - Casey

A: That could be the biggest call of the 2009 season. It hasn’t happened yet, when a one-loss BCS team got into a BCS Championship over an unbeaten BCS team, but it could happen. What happens if Florida loses a close battle at LSU, but goes on to win the SEC championship in a walk, and Penn State goes undefeated with its cakewalk of a schedule? And you’re right about West Virginia. Let’s say Oklahoma, Texas, or USC goes unbeaten; would an unbeaten West Virginia get in over a one-loss Florida? With the way the human polls work, I don’t think you’ll see any unbeaten BCS program get left out of the dance for another BCS team with a loss. The controversy would be too great, however, that’s when the BCS would earn its money. The system is in place to compare apples to oranges, and if that means a one-loss Florida plays for the national title, and an unbeaten West Virginia doesn’t, then there would have to be a valid reason.

College Football – CFN Grabbag of Questions

Posted in College Football

MLB – Baseball America Prospect Hot Sheet

Event Day Games — Sat, 15 Aug 2009 22:34:03 +0000

Baseball America has this week’s edition of the Prospect Hot Sheet, check it out below!

Because of the signing deadline, a majority of this year’s first-round picks are still unsigned. That’s not a problem for the Pirates’ Tony Sanchez, however. The fourth overall pick has been hitting since the moment he signed on June 12.

Remember as always, this is not a re-ranking of our Top 100 Prospects list. Instead, it’s a snapshot of who are the hottest prospects in baseball right now, with stats taken from the past week of games (Aug. 7-13).

Contributing: Ben Badler, Dan Budreika, J.J. Cooper, Matt Eddy and Jim Shonerd.

No. 1 TONY SANCHEZ, C	PIRATES
Team: low Class A West Virginia (South Atlantic) Age: 21 Why He’s Here: .500/.520/1.091 (11-for-22), 3 HR, 4 2B, 12 RBIs, 8 R, 2 BB, 3 SO, 1-for-1 SB The Scoop: With a series of trades since taking over as Pirates general manager, Neal Huntington has dramatically retooled the makeup of Pittsburgh’s major league club and its farm system. But despite all the trades, the franchise-record bonus given to Pedro Alvarez last year and the seven-figure bonuses given to late-round draft picks like Robbie Grossman and Zack Von Rosenberg, the Pirates’ most intriguing new addition might be Tony Sanchez. While Sanchez ranked as the No. 32 prospect going into the 2009 draft, the Pirates bucked consensus and took him fourth overall. Two months later, the former Boston College catcher is hitting .358/.465/.613 in 27 games with West Virginia with five home runs, 15 walks and 20 strikeouts. For all of the Pirates’ new additions, Sanchez is the player who could make the Pirates look brilliant if he pans out.
2009 Stats

No. 2 PEDRO ALVAREZ, 3B	PIRATES
Team: Double-A Altoona (Eastern) Age: 22 Why He’s Here: .481/.548/.593 (13-for-27), 3 2B, 4 RBIs, 5 R, 4 BB, 8 SO, 1-for-1 SB The Scoop: One of the problems with analyzing high-profile prospects is that everything they do gets picked apart. When Alvarez (finally) signed, there were reports that he was out of shape. Then he supposedly came into spring training showing more dedication to his conditioning. Then he struck out at a high clip and didn’t get off to a great start with high Class A Lynchburg. Well, now with nearly one full season under his belt, Alvarez through 43 Double-A games has an OPS pushing 1.000 with a .338/.410/.575 batting line for Altoona. Sure he’ll strike out a fair amount, but Alvarez’s combination of patience and power make him a dangerous hitter.
2009 Stats

No. 3 JOSH BELL, 3B	ORIOLES
Team: Double-A Bowie (Eastern) Age: 22 Why He’s Here: .500/.577/.864 (11-for-22), 2 2B, 2 HR, 5 RBIs, 4 BB, 3 SO The Scoop: The day he was traded to the Orioles, Bell became Baltimore’s third baseman of the future. But he’s put an exclamation point on that by hitting .462/.548/.769 in his first eight games in Bowie. It’s worth also noting that Bell’s glovework impressed Southern League managers, a group that voted him the best defensive third baseman in the league. The only wart left on his game is his complete inability to hit lefthanders, which makes him a switch-hitter in name only. He has 13 home runs this year, and all have come from left side. Going back to ’07, when he made his full-season ball debut, Bell has hit 33 home runs from his strong side—and only one from the right side.
2009 Stats

No. 4 RANDALL DELGADO, RHP	BRAVES
Team: low Class A Rome (South Atlantic) Age: 19 Why He’s Here: 1-0, 0.75, 12 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 18 SO The Scoop: While many teenagers in their first full seasons are running out of gas at this time of the season, Delgado has kept getting stronger. He started just 1-8, 5.45 through his first 16 starts for Rome, but he’s refined his command and gone 3-0, 1.45 in his last five outings, posting a 40-to-4 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 31 innings. In his first start of the week, Delgado tossed seven no-hit frames with nine strikeouts against Savannah, then followed that up with another nine strikeouts in five innings at Hagerstown. Those two performances upped his strikeout total for the season to 121 in 107 innings, ranking him fifth in the South Atlantic League.
2009 Stats

No. 5 CARLOS CARRASCO, RHP	INDIANS
Team: Triple-A Columbus (International) Age: 22 Why He’s Here: 1-0, 1.13, 8 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 10 SO The Scoop: One of two prominent members of this week’s Hot Sheet (Josh Bell is the other) to be traded at the trade deadline, Carrasco struggled in his first outing as an Indians farmhand. In his second start on Aug. 6, he allwed five runs in 7 2/3 innings. But he responded on Tuesday with his best outing on the season, thanks in part to being able to locate his changeup. He struck out a season-high 10 on his way to adding to his International League leading total of 133 strikeouts. Carrasco is now 3-0 since joining the Columbus rotation.
2009 Stats

No. 6 CHRISTIAN FRIEDRICH, LHP	ROCKIES
Team: high Class A Modesto (California) Age: 22 Why He’s Here: 1-0, 0.00, 6 2/3 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 3 BB, 8 SO The Scoop: You just don’t see this too often. Friedrich, the Rockies’ first-rounder last year, has allowed fewer earned runs per nine innings this season in the California League (1.32 in nine starts) than he did in the South Atlantic (2.18 in eight starts). Home or road, it’s made no difference—Friedrich has simply dominated Cal League competition, going 3-0 in nine starts while fanning 70, walking 18 and surrendering three homers over 54 2/3 innings. He ranks second overall in the minors in strikeouts per nine innings (12.24), fourth in ERA (1.71) and fifth in opponent average (.193).
2009 Stats

No. 7 TREVOR RECKLING, LHP	ANGELS
Team: Double-A Arkansas (Texas) Age: 20 Why He’s Here: 0-0, 0.00, 7 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 1 HBP, 4 BB, 5 SO The Scoop: The Travelers have been one of the worst teams in the Texas League this season, but that’s not the case when Reckling takes the hill. He’s gone 7-4 for a team that wins just 41 percent of the time, all while posting a 2.53 ERA, second best in the circuit. And while his 61 walks also rank second in the TL, he has balanced that with a strong strikeout rate (90 in 114 innings) and the fact that he’s still just 20 years old. A young lefty with a firm fastball and two dependable secondary pitches, Reckling’s best work may still be in front of him.
2009 Stats

No. 8 ALLEN CRAIG, 3B	CARDINALS
Team: Triple-A Memphis (Pacific Coast) Age: 25 Why He’s Here: .381/.435/.901 (8-for-21), 2 2B, 3 HR, 4 RBIs, 6 R, 2 BB, 5 SO, 2-for-2 SB The Scoop: Give some hitters a metal bat and they still might not be able to put up the numbers that Craig has lately. Yeah, a series in Colorado Springs probably helped this week, but Craig’s reign of terror on PCL pitchers has now stretched on for nearly a month and a half. He’s hitting .438/.491/.905 since the all-star break with 13 home runs in 116 plate appearances, bringing his slash stats for the season up to .312/.368/.534 with 21 dingers.
2009 Stats

No. 9 CARLOS SANTANA, C	INDIANS
Team: Double-A Akron (Eastern) Age: 23 Why He’s Here: .455/.552/.773 (10-for-22), 2 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 6 RBIs, 4 R, 4 BB, 5 SO The Scoop: It can’t be easy for Dodgers fans to see both Santana and Josh Bell in this week’s top 10. Los Angeles traded both prospects in deadline deals for, respectively, Casey Blake in ’08 and George Sherrill this season. Santana has lived up to his billing as the Indians’ No. 1 prospect by batting .294/.416/.545 with 20 home runs on the year, all while showing good athleticism and strike-zone judgment.
2009 Stats

No. 10 ALEX LIDDI, 3B	MARINERS
Team: high Class A High Desert (California) Age: 21 Why He’s Here: .440/.462/1.000 (11-for-25), 2 HR, 6 2B, 1 3B, 6 RBIs, 4 R, 1 BB, 6 SO, 3 E The Scoop: Not even playing home games in High Desert can obscure the fine season turned in by Liddi, who turns 21 today. And bear in mind that the above performance was accomplished on the road, in three games at Lake Elsinore and three at Rancho Cucamonga. Batting .355/.414/.637 with 23 homers, 40 doubles and 90 RBIs on the year, Liddi has a chance when it’s all said and done to lead the minors in as many as six categories: slugging, average, hits, doubles, extra-base hits and total bases. If that happens, an assist will be credited to his home park, where he has a 1.225 OPS, but Liddi also has fared well on the road this season, batting .329/.365/.535 with six of his 23 homers.
2009 Stats

No. 11 JORDAN LYLES, RHP	ASTROS
Team: low Class A Lexington (South Atlantic) Age: 18 Why He’s Here: 0-0, 0.00, 6 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 7 SO The Scoop: The hard-throwing Lyles has continued carving up Sally League hitters, ranking second in the league with 146 punchouts in 123 innings. His fastball can reach the mid-90s, but Lyles still battles inconsistency, as you’d expect with a teenager in his first full season. His record is only 6-10, but he has a solid 3.27 ERA and hasn’t allowed a home run since June 5, a span of 11 starts. His start Tuesday against Asheville was one of his best of the second half, as he gave up a single in the first inning, then threw five hitless innings.
2009 Stats

No. 12 BRETT JACKSON, CF	CUBS
Team: low Class A Peoria (Midwest) Age: 21 Why He’s Here: .400/.486/.733 (12-for-30), 3 HR, 1 2B, 6 RBIs, 4 BB, 6 SO, 1-for-2 SB The Scoop: Tony Sanchez isn’t the only ’09 first rounder to get off to a hot start in low Class A. Jackson, the 31st overall pick from California, arrived in Peoria on July 31 and has put up a .328/.423/.574 line in 61 at-bats. An athletic, high-energy player with some pop in his bat, Jackson opened his week with a home run to lead off Peoria’s game last Friday against Wisconsin, and then slugged two home runs in an 11-1 thumping of Burlington on Wednesday. Jackson is on an eight-game hitting streak overall, a stretch that includes five multi-hit games.
2009 Stats

No. 13 HECTOR RONDON, RHP	INDIANS
Team: Triple-A Columbus (International) Age: 21 Why He’s Here: 1-1, 1.42, 12 2/3 IP, 15 H, 6 R, 2 ER, 1 BB, 11 SO The Scoop: Rondon’s advanced command of a lively fastball has helped him reach the upper levels of Cleveland’s minor league system at an age when most pitchers are stuck in the lower minors. He steered out of trouble this week and only allowed two earned runs despite his defense letting him down. The base paths were busy this week against Rondon while he surrendered 15 hits in his two starts. But he continued to miss bats with 11 strikeouts (9.07 SO/9 in seven Triple-A starts) and allowed only one walk. Rondon has cut down on his walks since his promotion. His walks per nine stands at 1.51 in Columbus after walking 2.00 per nine in Double-A Akron.
2009 Stats

IN THE TEAM PHOTO

This is Domonic Brown‘s first appearance on the Hot Sheet this year, even if the 21-year-old right fielder has been a frequent visitor all year as Dominic Brown. It seems that Brown recently told the Phillies that they had been misspelling his name ever since they drafted him. But however you spell his first name, he’s one of the best hitters in the minors, as this week’s .360/.407/.720 line at Double-A Reading attests . . . While it’s largely been a forgettable season for Double-A New Hampshire 1B David Cooper (Blue Jays), his bat has started to come alive in August. In the past two weeks with the Fisher Cats, the 22-year-old has hit .333/.431/.571 (14-for-42) with two homers, four doubles and six RBIs in 12 games . . . Since the low Class A Midwest League all-star break, Lansing RHP Henderson Alvarez (Blue Jays) has been one of the circuit’s better pitchers. This week, the 19-year-old Venezuelan won his only start, pitching seven shutout innings while allowing three hits and striking out four. He walked nobody but did hit a couple of batters. Since the break, Alvarez has gone 4-1, 2.66 in nine starts, striking out 42 and walking seven (while allowing his only home run of the season) over 47 1/3 innings . . . Last year, Twins RHP David Bromberg led the minors in strikeouts. He won’t defend that crown, but it’s hard to argue with a 11-2, 2.60 season at high Class A Fort Myers. Bromberg has saved his best for August, as the 21-year-old threw a complete-game shutout this week in one of his two starts . . . When Matt Moore can command his pitches, low Class A hitters don’t have a chance. The lefty located his pitches this week, which explains his line of 5 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 1 BB and 9 SO. Moore, 20, leads the South Atlantic League in strikeouts with 150. He managed to lower his ERA on the season to 2.64 this week and miraculously raised his jaw-dropping strikeouts per nine rate to a whopping 12.78, which leads the minors . . . After earning our top spot last week, Double-A Midland 1B Chris Carter has continued his assault on Texas League hurlers. Carter, 22, now leads the league in a number of offensive categories including slugging (.574), on base-percentage (.430) and home runs (22). Perhaps most surprisingly, he’s also the league’s current batting champion with a .333 mark. Carter smashed three more homers this week and went 7-for-21. Since the all-star break Carter is hitting .395 and and has a 1.148 OPS . . . The transition to Triple-A hasn’t gone too smoothy for Astros 3B Chris Johnson, but you wouldn’t notice that based on his numbers this week. Johnson hit .409 this past week and slugged 1.091 with four homers. On the year, he’s batting .264/.304/.438 for Round Rock.

NOT-SO HOT SHEET

Brad Lincoln, rhp, Pirates: Lincoln’s low-90s fastball and plus curveball are back after he missed the 2007 season while recovering from Tommy John surgery. But he’s had a rocky time with Triple-A Indianapolis. Lincoln, 24, saw his ERA rise to 5.80 this week after allowing seven runs in three innings. He’s a strike-thrower, but Lincoln has just three strikeouts combined in his last three starts and just 22 punchouts in 40 1/3 Triple-A innings.

Daniel Moskos, lhp, Pirates: Few players have seen their stock plummet the way Moskos has in just two years. Moskos was the No. 4 overall pick out of Clemson in 2007, when several scouts preferred him to Maryland lefty Brett Cecil, who went to the Blue Jays in the supplemental first round. But the reports lately on Moskos, 22, have not been kind, and the results haven’t been pretty either. Pitching for Double-A Altoona, Moskos has a 4.11 ERA in 116 innings with more walks (52) than strikeouts (50).

J.C. Ramirez, rhp, Mariners: The grind of the long season (not to mention the altitude and wind gusts at High Desert) finally appears to be getting to Ramirez, the Mariners’ 20-year-old fireballer. He’s gone 6-8, 5.19 through 23 starts, which actually isn’t bad considering the context in which he pitches his home games. And the home/road split is stark. In 14 starts in High Desert, Ramirez has posted a 6.35 ERA and given up 13 home runs; in nine road starts, the corresponding numbers are 3.60 and one. Still, over his past three starts—one of which was on the road—he’s gone 0-2, 12.54, having given up 16 runs on 17 hits, eight walks and three hit batsmen over 9 1/3 innings.

Derek Norris, c, Nationals: The best hitter in the South Atlantic League looks like he might be hitting a wall. Norris, 20, hasn’t homered since July 27, though his 23 for the season still leads the league. He just broke an 0-for-August slump with a double in the second game of a doubleheader Wednesday, and hit only .095/.231/.143 (2-for-21) on the week for low Class A Hagerstown. He’s still drawing his share of walks, as opponents aren’t about to challenge him even in the middle of a slump, but his average has dropped from .313 to .292 in the process.

MEN AMONG BOYS

Adam Fox, 3b, Rangers: At 27, Fox isn’t really a prospect, but it’s hard to find a hitter who had a better week than Fox, who hit .538/.556/1.154 with five home runs in 26 at-bats. In 77 games with Double-A Frisco, Fox is batting .282/.334/.516 with 17 home runs. It’s fair to say that 2009 has been a career year for Fox, a .246/.323/.389 career hitter in more than 2,500 plate appearances since the Rangers drafted him as a 10th-round pick from Ohio in 2003.

BLAST FROM THE PAST

Back in 2006, Terry Evans became a regular part of the Prospect Hot Sheet discussions thanks to a 30-30 season that erased any memory of his awful .221/.285/.330 stats from the year before. The Angels traded Jeff Weaver for Evans that year, and like other prospects (like Brandon Wood), he’s found himself stuck largely in Triple-A purgatory at Salt Lake since then. He hit .316/.352/.512 at Salt Lake in 2007, but he’s been back there for most of the past two years. Evans is trying to hit his way back to Anaheim with a .400/.483/.800 week. As a 27-year-old, Evans doesn’t have much upside left, but he can play all three outfield positions, steal bases (25 steals in 28 attempts) and hit for power (57 extra-base hits).

HELIUM WATCH

Robert Stock, c, Cardinals: This stock is on the rise. Stock is well known for earning his GED and bypassing his senior year of high school so he could play at Southern California. Stock spent three seasons at USC and last June he became a rare draft-eligible 19-year old with college experience. A two-way player in college, Stock fared much better on the mound in his junior year (2.90 ERA in 78 innings) than at the plate, where he hit a lowly .226/.345/.453. The Cardinals drafted him in the second round, signed him a week later for $525,000 and declared that he would have a chance to play catcher for Rookie-level Johnson City. Through 107 professional at-bats, Stock is hitting .355/.426/.598 with five home runs in the Appalachian League.

MLB – Baseball America Hot Sheet Original Article

Posted in College Baseball, MLB

MLB – Countdown to the 2009 Draft Signing Deadline

Event Day Games — Sat, 15 Aug 2009 22:29:24 +0000

Kendall Rogers has a new blog up this morning on the status of the 2009 MLB Draft Signing’s, it looks like it is going to come down to the wire for many of the top picks.

Countdown to draft deadline: Friday’s juice

By Kendall Rogers

We’re less than three days away from the MLB draft signing deadline and there still are several high-profile prospects that have yet to agree to or sign contracts.

San Diego State right-handed pitcher Stephen Strasburg, the top pick of the draft to the Nationals, still hasn’t signed and it looks like his situation will go down to the wire, which is midnight, Monday, August 17.

North Carolina’s Dustin Ackley and Alex White, Arizona State’s Mike Leake, Southern California’s Grant Green and Brad Boxberger, Missouri’s Kyle Gibson, Kentucky’s James Paxton and Tennessee’s Kentrail Davis are first rounders still unsigned.

• There’s really nothing new out there right now on Ackley and White. Sources are still saying there’s no question Ackley will get a deal done with the Mariners. There’s never been any doubt about that. White’s situation is a little different. A few weeks ago it looked like White was a lock to sign with the Indians. However, sources are saying he has gone through the normal routine of a student at UNC. I still don’t think that means too much, and I also think White will sign. But as of Thursday, the percentage of White returning was at 20 percent. We’ll stick to that percentage. Could happen but very unlikely.

• There’s still a great chance Arizona State’s Mike Leake signs a pro contract. After all, we reported Thursday that many of our sources were saying he would prefer to sign. That indeed is true. However, Leake is a cool customer and is the type of person that could return to school if his deal isn’t perfect. The same goes for left-handed pitcher Josh Spence. Spence’s chances of returning to ASU are much higher, but there’s a decent chance he signs if the Angels show him some last-minute love.

• Southern California’s Grant Green and Brad Boxberger are still likely to sign. Green is supposed to be in Oakland this weekend and it would be a surprise to everyone close to the USC program if Boxberger turns down the Reds to return for another season. As we said Thursday, look for the talented duo to ink contracts before the deadline strikes. There’s nothing out there to believe otherwise.

• Missouri’s Kyle Gibson is a guy we should have an in-depth update on sometime Saturday. Gibson suffered an injury at the end of Missouri’s season this past spring and there definitely was and perhaps still is some concern on the Twins’ part on the health of his throwing arm. It’s hard to imagine Gibson won’t sign, but he’s a guy that several college coaches have told me has the potential to be “much” better than Aaron Crow. Let that sink in for a minute. For now, it looks like Gibson is seriously contemplating returning to college for another season. I’ll have more on his situation Saturday.

• Kentucky pitcher James Paxton is still expected to sign with Toronto. Paxton had a solid spring for the Wildcats and sources say there’s really no reason for him to return in order to further improve his stock in the draft. Many believe his ceiling has been hit, but we’ll see what type of offer the Blue Jays throw at him. It’s hard to imagine he won’t sign.

• For the most interesting situation right now, look no further than the situation between Tennessee outfielder Kentrail Davis and Milwaukee. There were some tense moments in negotiations a few weeks ago, sources say. However, the Brewers came out Friday and said they were very confident a deal was going to get done by the deadline. Brewers officials didn’t say they were 100 percent sure, but certainly sounded pretty sure of their situation. Davis is one of few players that could come back for another season and improve his stock considering he’s a draft-eligible sophomore. Despite what the Brewers are saying, I still think his situation is 50-50.

• The Dodgers were thrilled Friday when they inked right-handed pitcher Garrett Gould, a second-round selection from the state of Kansas. Gould signed with Wichita State and was hoping to be a two-way star for the Shockers. However, he’s now part of the Dodgers.

• Not a surprise at all, but the Diamondbacks finally signed third baseman Bobby Borchering on Friday. Borchering was a first-round selection and had signed to play for Florida. However, he’s now a happy man with a signing bonus of $1.8 million.

• Tampa Bay has come to terms with fourth-round selection and high school catcher Luke Bailey. Bailey had signed with Auburn, and some close to the Tigers thought there was a decent chance of getting him on campus. However, he is expected to sign either Saturday or Sunday.

• Spoke to a source in Mississippi late Friday and it appears shortstop David Renfroe, a third-round selection of the Red Sox, has decided to sign a pro contract. The Rebels thought all along that Renfro was a long shot. The talented former prep star is expected to sign either Saturday or Sunday. The source said a deal was in place.

MLB & College Baseball – Status of Unsigned Draft Picks Full Article

Posted in College Baseball, MLB

College Football – EA’s NCAA Football 2010 Review

Event Day Games — Sat, 15 Aug 2009 22:24:33 +0000

The folks at Fannation reviewed Electronic Arts College Football’s NCAA Football 2010, here is what they had to say.

What We Liked

Team Building Exercise: We’ve all customized our own characters down to the shade of their nose hair, but NCAA Football 10 ups the ante this year. Rather than just create your own player, EA challenges you to start up your own university. No detail goes unturned. Unleash your inner-Project Runway desires by picking uniform colors and designing logos for helmets and jerseys. Build your own stadium with your new logo plopped down on the 50-yard line. (Minor drawback: You have to do all of the customization on your computer, then upload it from your console. Truth be told, it’s easier to handle all of the options with a keyboard and mouse, but it’s still worth noting.) You can even upload other gamers’ newly created schools. Pretty deep and pretty awesome.

School Spirit: The new Season Showdown mode prompts you to pick a school and stick with it throughout the real college football season. Every time you play as that team, whether it’s online or against the CPU, you’ll tally points for your school that will display online. Winning counts, but so does loyalty and sportsmanship (yeah, so it’s not that realistic). At the end of the season, EA will crown the best gaming university in the country by pitting the 32 top ranked teams against each other in a single-elimination tournament. The last two universities standing will be pitted against each other during college football’s real championship week. (We’re sure the BCS is thrilled about fans getting the opportunity to see a college football playoff system in action, regardless of whether it’s real or imagined.)

We’ve Been Set Up: The new Set Up Plays option lets you make decisions with more than just one down in mind. As you scroll through the offensive playbook, you’ll notice adjacent plays joined by links. Pull off one of the linked plays and it’ll set you up for a big play on the next hike. The game even provides a percentage on the second linked play to let you know how vulnerable the defense will be if you call that play next.

CPUniversity: An upgraded and adaptive artificial intelligence will keep you honest. It’s been a while since a sports game featured one play you could exploit over and over again, but NCAA Football 10 has really amped up their AI. Repetitive playcalling results in sacks and interceptions by the second quarter. An overreliance on one play will also put you up against a defense that shades to the correct side of the field and places defenders where you’re trying to place the ball.

On the Defensive: You may not think defense wins championships, but it looks like EA does. Man-to-man, zone, combos — NCAA Football 10′s got all the options you need to stuff a high-powered offense. Once you choose your play you can change how your linebackers and defensive lineman line up with more audibles at the line of scrimmage. Hit the triggers to control either the defensive line or the linebackers, then flick the left and right toggle sticks to pick which side to load up and whether or not to bring heavy pressure.

What We’d Change

Control Bored: All of the major additions listed above have upped the replaybility factor for NCAA 10, but one nagging issue remains: the gameplay still isn’t that smooth. The action on the field is more natural than last year’s edition, but there’s still very little control over the players once you set a play in motion. The blocking needs to line up perfectly on the exact right play call in order for a big play to spring and you rarely find room to maneuver in the open field. This is one of those cases where NCAA Football 10 falls on the wrong side of the fine line between realism and frustration.

Delay of Game: It seems like every three snaps, another player goes down with an injury. In an effort to keep you honest, you’re sometimes given an option to either rest that player or bring him back on the field, risking further injury. The problem here is you rarely see any drop off in performance from a starter to his replacement, so there’s no real function behind this feature.

Flag on the Play: Random penalties will halt your drives, keep your opponents’ drives alive and come and go whenever they please. Don’t you dare try to string together more than a few running plays in a row lest you want to see your drive stuffed by a ten-yard holding call. Holding and facemask calls seem to pop up the most, while off-sides and pass interference seem to have been left with NCAA Football 09.

Squawking Heads: Brad Nessler, Kirk Herbstreit, and Lee Corso handle the announcing duties from the booth and they’re joined by sideline reporter and online tabloid target Erin Andrews. Between miscalling plays and falling behind the action, the trio in the booth do little more than spit out an annoying string of repetitive and misplaced clichés. Andrews’ headshot pops up to alert you of injuries, but her reports are long and usually cut into the next play. Sideline reports are annoying enough during real broadcasts, we hardly need them added to our video games.

Bottom Line

Between creating your own player and program and having the ability to control your school’s national gaming reputation, NCAA Football 10 divvies up the ways you can stay occupied with this disc. I still can’t shake the feeling, however, that in putting so much effort into the game’s peripheral features, the action on the field has taken a backseat. Once they learn to combine the extensive extras with slick gameplay, this title will be impossible to put down.

Gameplay: 7
Graphics: 9
Audio: 6
Online: 9
Overall: 8

–Reviewed by Paul Ulane

NCAA Football 10 – Full Article

Posted in College Football

MLB – Where NOT to Spend Free Agent Money, Closers

Event Day Games — Sat, 15 Aug 2009 01:21:30 +0000

Eddie Schmid of www.MLBTradeRumors.com did a quick analysis of free agent closer signings over the last few seasons. The general conclusion is that investing in these highly paid specialists is probably something to avoid. This is a great lesson to teams as MLB free agnecy is closer than we realize.

High-Priced Closers

By Eddie Schmid [August 13, 2009 at 9:06pm CST]

There was a user here that stated roughly “If the closer is the highest-paid player on your team, you’re not destined for great things.” With that in mind, let’s take a look at the highest-priced relievers in the game who were signed to specifically be closers.

Earlier in the decade, a free-agent closer earning $10MM per year looked fairly implausible, but it seems the dominance of players like Mariano Rivera and Eric Gagne made teams salivate at the thought of an unhittable late-game fireman. Since then, closers have become increasingly expensive and the results have been mixed. Let’s look at what the top contracts have produced for teams, whether they’re the highest contracts on the team or not:

B.J. Ryan – Signed a five-year, $47MM contract in 2005. One brilliant season (2006), one good one (2008), one completely missed season (2007) and now out of a job with another year to go on his contract. The Blue Jays didn’t make the playoffs.
Joe Nathan – Signed a four-year, $47MM contract in 2008. He’s been fantastic, putting up sub-2 ERAs and saving 68 games while blowing nine. But the Twins are five games back and look like they’ll miss the playoffs this year, as they did last.
Mariano Rivera – Signed a four-year, $40MM deal in 2001, a two-year, $21MM deal with vesting option in 2005 and a three-year, $45MM contract in 2008. Rivera has been exceptionally brilliant since he was given his big deal in ’01, putting up five seasons of sub-2 ERA and 30-save seasons in all but one. Perhaps it’s semi-notable that the Yankees haven’t won a World Series since they first broke the bank on Rivera.
Billy Wagner - Signed a four-year, $43MM deal in late 2005. Pitched magnificently for two and a half seasons until he was forced to have elbow surgery last season. Mets made NLCS in 2006.
Francisco Rodriguez – Signed a three-year, $37MM deal w/$17.5MM option in 2008. Has been good but not great for the Mets this year, putting up a 3.35 ERA and 53/30 K/BB ratio in 51 IP. Mets aren’t going to make the playoffs this year, but it can’t really be traced to his performance.
Francisco Cordero – Signed a four-year, $46MM deal in 2007. Cordero was good in 2008 and has been pretty great this season, posting a 1.79 ERA and 37/19 K/BB ratio. He’s saved 59 games and blown only seven since last year, but the Reds continue to scuffle.
Brian Fuentes – Signed a two-year, $17.5MM deal in 2008 with a vesting option for 2011. He’s had a bumpy ride this season, but he’s saved 32 games in 36 chances. Angels could be set for the playoffs.
Brad Lidge – Signed a three-year, $37.5MM deal in 2008 w/Phillies. Has been erratic this year, posting a 7.29 ERA and 44/25 K/BB ratio and saving 21 of 28 games after a nearly flawless campaign last season. Phillies look committed to forge on with him, but will it cost them late in the season? We’ll see.
Kerry Wood – Signed a two-year, $20.5MM deal with vesting option for 2011 w/ Indians. Wood has been a frustrating sign, posting a 4.72 ERA and 45/19 K/BB ratio while saving 15 games and blowing five saves. Pretty big disappointment for the Indians, who were looking to contend this year and have now blown up their team.

So what can we learn from these? One prevailing trend is that the small-market teams (Blue Jays, Reds, Indians, Twins) have paid astronomical contracts to closers with few good results. While a closer may put up solid numbers here or there, the middling teams haven’t seen their overall performance improve significantly, if at all, by the season’s end. When a larger-market team invests, the player has usually rounded out an already robust squad–one with enough depth and cash to recover.

This conclusion has probably been made a few times, but there seems to be a correlation that shouldn’t be ignored: Signing a high-priced closer long-term is likely to be an unwise move for a small-market team, as the risk of injury or sudden ineffectiveness is high. A closer isn’t likely to be the piece to make a middling team a great one, and money would be well-spent on other resources.

Special thanks to Cot’s Contracts.

MLB – Don\’t Sign Free Agent Closers

Posted in MLB

MLB – MLB 2009 Draft Bonus Demands

Event Day Games — Sat, 15 Aug 2009 01:07:05 +0000

Jim Callis at Baseball America put together this awesome chart with what demands draftees are making on their MLB teams and what the status of negotiations is.

Status Of Unsigned Draft Picks

Through top 10 rounds

By Jim Callis
August 14, 2009

Unsigned players in the first 10 rounds, and their negotiation status as of Friday morning:

Rd	Pick	Team	Player, Pos.	Status
1	1	Nationals	Stephen Strasburg, rhp	Seeking multimillion-dollar deal
1	2	Mariners	Dustin Ackley, of	Seeking multimillion-dollar deal
1	3	Padres	Donavan Tate, of	Seeking multimillion-dollar deal
1	6	Giants	Zack Wheeler, rhp	Seeking multimillion-dollar bonus
1	8	Reds	Mike Leake, rhp	Seeking multimillion-dollar bonus
1	9	Tigers	Jacob Turner, rhp	Seeking multimillion-dollar deal
1	11	Rockies	Tyler Matzek, lhp	Seeking multimillion-dollar deal
1	12	Royals	Aaron Crow, rhp	Seeking multimillion-dollar deal
1	13	Athletics	Grant Green, ss	Seeking multimillion-dollar bonus
1	14	Rangers	Matt Purke, lhp	Seeking multimillion-dollar deal
1	15	Indians	Alex White, rhp	Seeking multimillion-dollar bonus
1	16	D’backs	Bobby Borchering, 3b	Seeking multimillion-dollar bonus
1	18	Marlins	Chad James, lhp	Seeking over-slot bonus
1	19	Cardinals	Shelby Miller, rhp	Seeking multimillion-dollar bonus
1	22	Twins	Kyle Gibson, rhp	Has medical issues (forearm)
1	27	Mariners	Nick Franklin, ss	Seeking over-slot bonus
1	29	Yankees	Slade Heathcott, of	Seeking multimillion-dollar bonus
1	30	Rays	LeVon Washington, of	Seeking over-slot bonus
1s	37	Blue Jays	James Paxton, lhp	Seeking over-slot bonus
1s	39	Brewers	Kentrail Davis, of	Seeking over-slot bonus
1s	43	Reds	Brad Boxberger, rhp	Seeking over-slot bonus
1s	44	Rangers	Tanner Scheppers, rhp	Seeking over-slot bonus
2	52	Padres	Everett Williams, of	May get seven-figure bonus
2	54	Orioles	Mychal Givens, ss	Expected to attend Oklahoma State
2	55	Giants	Tommy Joseph, c	May get over-slot bonus
2	58	Tigers	Andrew Oliver, lhp	May get seven-figure bonus
2	65	Dodgers	Garrett Gould, rhp	May get seven-figure bonus
2	66	Marlins	Bryan Berglund, rhp	May get over-slot bonus
2	68	Blue Jays	Jake Eliopoulos, lhp	May get over-slot bonus
2	72	Mets	Steve Matz, lhp	May get seven-figure bonus
2	76	Yankees	J.R. Murphy, c	May get over-slot bonus
2	78	Rays	Kenny Diekroeger, ss	Expected to attend Stanford
3	91	Royals	Wil Myers, c/3b	Expected to get seven-figure bonus
3	99	Blue Jays	Jake Barrett, rhp	May get over-slot bonus
3	102	White Sox	Bryan Morgado, lhp	May get over-slot bonus
3	104	Blue Jays	Jake Marisnick, of	May get over-slot bonus
3	107	Red Sox	David Renfroe, ss	Expected to get seven-figure bonus
3	108	Rays	Todd Glaesmann, of	Expected to get over-slot bonus
3	110	Angels	Josh Spence, lhp	Expected to return to Arizona State
4	114	Padres	Keyvius Sampson, rhp	May get over-slot bonus
4	123	Athletics	Max Stassi, c	Expected to get seven-figure bonus
4	136	Brewers	Brooks Hall, rhp	Expected to get over-slot bonus
4	139	Rays	Luke Bailey, c	Expected to get over-slot bonus
5	142	Nationals	Miguel Pena, lhp	Expected to attend San Jacinto JC
5	143	Mariners	Tyler Blandford, rhp	May get over-slot bonus
5	147	Giants	Brandon Belt, 1b	May get over-slot bonus
5	164	Mets	Damien Magnifico, rhp	May get over-slot bonus
5	165	Yankees	Caleb Cotham, rhp	Expected to get over-slot bonus
5	169	Rays	Jeff Malm, 1b	Expected to get over-slot bonus
6	178	Braves	Ryan Woolley, rhp	Expected to return to Ala.-Birm.
6	180	Tigers	Daniel Fields, ss	May get over-slot bonus
6	190	Blue Jays	K.C. Hobson, of	May get over-slot bonus
6	194	Mets	David Buchanan, rhp	May get over-slot bonus
6	198	Red Sox	Branden Kline, rhp	Expected to attend Virginia
7	213	Athletics	Ian Krol, lhp	May get over-slot bonus
7	216	D’backs	Matt Helm, 3b	May get over-slot bonus
7	223	White Sox	Justin Jones, lhp	Expected to attend California
7	227	Phillies	Brody Colvin, rhp	May get over-slot bonus
7	228	Red Sox	Madison Younginer, rhp	Expected to get over-slot bonus
8	236	Orioles	Devin Harris, of	Expected to return to East Carolina
8	240	Tigers	Craig Fritsch, rhp	May get over-slot bonus
9	274	Rangers	Jabari Blash, of	May get over-slot bonus
9	284	Mets	Jeff Glenn, c	May get over-slot bonus
9	288	Red Sox	Kendal Volz, rhp	Expected to return to Baylor
9	289	Rays	Kevin James, lhp	Expected to get over-slot bonus
10	303	Athletics	Sam Dyson, rhp	Expected to return to S. Carolina
10	304	Rangers	Thomas Lemke, rhp	May get over-slot bonus
10	312	Twins	Blake Dean, of	Expected to return to Louisiana St.
10	315	Yankees	Tyler Lyons, lhp	May get over-slot bonus
10	319	Rays	Derek Dennis, ss	May get over-slot bonus
10	321	Angels	Jake Locker, of	May get two-sport deal and return to Washington (football)

Posted in MLB

NFL – 2010 NFL Draft Outside Lineback Prospects

Event Day Games — Thu, 13 Aug 2009 23:53:27 +0000

Here, Gil Brandt of the NFL outlines some of the 2010 Outside Linebacker targets teams should be examining.

NFL – 2010 NFL Draft Outside Linebacker Prospects

Outstanding outside linebacker prospects litter 2010 draft class

by Gil Brandt

Editor’s note: This is part of a weekly series detailing the top senior prospects, by position, for the 2010 NFL Draft.

It is always important for outside linebackers to be able to use their hands to jam receivers they may be forced to cover.

Over the past 10 drafts, 25 outside linebackers have been selected in the first round and 26 in the Round 2. The 2010 draft looks like it will have some good players.

Here is a fun fact: Thomas ‘Hollywood’ Henderson, who was drafted in the first round of the 1975 draft and received a $40,000 signing bonus, won the lottery in the state of Texas twice and earned over $25 million in doing so.

TOP SENIOR OUTSIDE LINEBACKERS

1. Sergio Kindle

College: Texas
Height/Weight: 6-foot-3½, 250

Kindle played as a true freshman in 2006 and 2008 was his first year as a starter. He was a high school running back, who rushed for 5,632 yards in three years and started on the basketball team. He made the Texas high school All-State team on both offense and defense (first-team on both). His best position in the NFL might be as a hand-on-the-ground pass rusher, who has the strength, quickness and toughness needed to be taken in the lower-half of the first round.

2. Sean Weatherspoon

College: Missouri
Height/Weight: 6-1, 245

Weatherspoon played as a true freshman in 2006 and has started 28 games over the past two years. He had 155 total tackles in 2008, plus five sacks and returned two interceptions for touchdowns. He plays weakside backer and is an aggressive player with speed, who is a good blitzer and a good player in space. Weatherspoon can play every down and should play a lot of years in the NFL. He was a high jumper and point guard in high school.

3. Roddrick Muckelroy

College: Texas
Height/Weight: 6-1½, 237

Muckelroy is a fifth-year player, who started 16 consecutive games and had 50 more tackles (112) in 2008 than Texas’ next-highest tackler. He has very good speed and athletic ability and can play in space, is good vs. the run and should be a solid starter and special teams player for many years.

4. Eric Norwood

College: South Carolina
Height/Weight: 6-foot ½, 250

Norwood played as a true freshman and had six sacks. He played defensive end his first two years at South Carolina and played linebacker in 2008. He had nine sacks, made first-team All-SEC at defensive end in 2008 and linebacker in 2008. Norwood has started 25 consecutive games and has great versatility as a player, can rush the passer or play coverage, plays hard every play and is a good character person. I wish her were a little taller, but he should be a good player for years and is a Pittsburgh-type player and good athlete.

5. Justin Cole

College: San Jose State
Height/Weight: 6-3¼, 243

Cole is a fifth-year player, who played defensive end his first two years at San Jose State. He has started 31 games and had 68 tackles and 3.5 sacks in 2008. He was selected second-team All-WAC in 2008 and was a sprinter in high school, who has the ability needed to play in the NFL. He is a very good competitor with size and speed and can play with his hand on the ground or in space.

6. Ricky Sapp

College: Clemson
Height/Weight: 6-4, 245

Sapp is a four-year player, who tore his ACL in the 10th game of the 2008 season. He has played defensive end for three years and was a great high school athlete as a track sprinter and starter on the basketball team. He has pass rush ability coming off the edge, because of his speed and quickness. The question will be if he can play in space and recover from his injury. He has the physical talent.

7. Dekoda Watson

College: Florida State
Height/Weight: 6-1½, 225

Watson played as a true freshman, starting one game as a strong-side linebacker. He had 46 tackles in 16 games in 2008 and is very athletic and can play in space. Watson is a big hitter at the college level, but needs to get bigger to play well in the NFL. He will be a good special teams player.

8. Sean Lee

College: Penn State
Height/Weight: 6-2, 235

Lee is a fifth-year player, who played as a true freshman missing the 2008 season with a torn anterior cruciate ligament in his right knee. The injury happened during spring practice in a non-contact drill. Lee won All-State awards in both football and basketball before the injury. He was outstanding and a great competitor, with quickness. He is a very instinctive player with speed and is a smart player, leader and co-captain for the 2009 season. If healthy, he is a starter in the NFL.

9. Cameron Sheffield

College: Troy
Height/Weight: 6-2¼, 245

Sheffield is a four-year player and two-year starter at defensive end. This is a playmaker on defense and was a first-team all-conference player in 2008. He plays faster than his timed speed (4.80) and is very athletic with very good quickness and is strong, tough and can play in space. Troy has turned out some good players over the past several years, including DeMarcus Ware and Osi Umenyiora.

10. Daryl Washington

College: TCU
Height/Weight: 6-1½, 215

Washington played as a true freshman, who has started just two games in his first three years. He has the speed (4.58 40) to play safety, but is not big enough for linebacker. He will be a great special teams player for an NFL team. He has ability, but needs weight and strength. The 2009 season will be a big year for him. Washington is well coached and had 63 tackles, two sacks and one interception in 2008.

11. Darryl Sharpton

College: Miami (Fla.)
Height/Weight: 5-11, 230

Sharpton is a fifth-year player, who played sas a true freshman. He was injured in the third game and received a medical hardship (leading to an extra year of eligibility). He has started 20 games the past three years and earned a degree in finance (May ’09). Sharpton had 66 tackles and 1.5 sacks in 2008 and is a very good player that lacks ideal size. He is a very good special teams player and has strength, quickness and has played middle linebacker.

12. Simon Lawrence

College: Minnesota
Height/Weight: 6-0¼, 220

Lawrence played two years at junior college before coming to Minnesota in 2008. He was a high school running back of note. He started five games in 2008 and had 66 tackles, four sacks and one interception. Lawrence is a great athlete, who seems to have excellent coverage skills and runs well. He needs to add weight, but he is a young player who will be 21 in 2010.

13. Boris Lee

College: Troy
Height/Weight: 6-0¼, 235

Lee is a four-year player, who will open some eyes. He plays inside linebacker and makes tackles all over the place. He can also drop into space and make interceptions (five for his career). Lee was a first-team all-conference player in 2008, ran a 4.7 40 in the spring and is strong, touch and quick. He should be a great special teams player.

14. Myron Rolle

College: Florida St.
Height/Weight: 6-1¾, 225

Rolle is a four-year player, who has started 35 games at safety for the Seminoles. He was named the high school player of the year in 2005. He needs to switch to linebacker in the NFL and is very smart — one of 32 students in America to be named a Rhodes Scholar. He needs to add weight, but is a very good competitor, with the athletic ability, quickness and strength needed for the position.

15. A.J. Edds

College: Iowa
Height/Weight: 6-3½, 246

Edds is a fourth-year player, who came to Iowa as a tight end and moved to linebacker in 2006. He is a very good athlete, with size and speed for the position. He ran a 4.68 in the spring and was an honorable mention All-Big Ten in 2008. he will take on blockers and make plays vs. the run. He can play in space and is a very good competitor.

16. Rico McCoy

College: Tennessee
Height/Weight: 5-11½, 220

McCoy is a fifth-year player, who has started 27 games over the past three years. He was named second-team All-SEC in 2008 and was the second-leading tackler on the team in 2008. McCoy makes a lot of plays and is a very good special teams player — strong with good speed. He lacks ideal height for the position.

17. Carl Ihenacho

College: San Jose State
Height/Weight: 6-2 3/8, 250

Ihenacho played and started three games in 2006 as a true freshman and played injured in 2008. He has the ability to rush the passer and was a tight end in high school, who can play in space.

18. Kavell Conner

College: Clemson
Height/Weight: 6-0½, 233

Conner is a fifth-year player, who led the team in tackles in 2008. He is an athletic player, who was a high school running back. He is smart, strong and a good competitor, who moves well. He has good speed and will be a good special teams player.

Posted in College Football, NFL

MLB – Trade Deadline Winners and Losers

Event Day Games — Thu, 13 Aug 2009 23:47:53 +0000

Awesome analysis by Adam Guttride of The Hardball Times breaking down the winners and losers of the trade deadline!

Applying the Guttridge-Wang trade model to this year’s deadline trades (Part 2)

by Adam Guttridge
August 10, 2009

So, thanks to a link from MLB Trade Rumors, part one received a great deal of response. Many (though certainly not all) of those responses can be descirbed as somewhere between constructive criticism and “what kind of idiot are you?”

I’m not upset a bit by those who view the model with a grain (or boulder) of skepticism; I’ll be the first to admit that this model is not yet in its final stage. To say nothing of the WAR projections (which, as I mentioned in part one, were chosen for the fact that they’re publicly available moreso than their merit), the process of conforming the theoretical to the actual has some tweaking left to be done. However, I firmly believe that the broader concept of the model is not only valid, but represents an advance in our ability to evaluate the merits of trades.

In the interests of continuity, part two is being presented using the exact same version of the model as part one. However, based at least partially on the feedback, I’d like to spend a moment discussing possible tweaks I’d consider making to the model.

The most common complaint I received is that the model overvalues prospects. Based on the evaluations of the deadline deals presented here (which have come out overwhelmingly negative), this may seem to have some merit. As a counterpoint, however, I hold firm to the belief that teams trading for veterans at the deadline usually overpay. The best players in the game—the 15 most valuable hitters, the 15 most valuable pitchers—collectively average somewhere around five wins above replacement level over the course of a full season (and rarely end up displacing someone who is truly of replacement level value).

Two very important piecies of information need to be presented along with that: (1) Players within that category are rarely traded at the deadline (for this deadline, that’s Matt Holliday and Cliff Lee) (2) Even when they are traded , over 60 percent of the season has already passed. The majority of deadline deals add around one win or less to a team’s expected total for the remainder of the season. That’s not trivial—every projected win counts. But whether or not a team makes the playoffs is, in the overwhelming majority of cases, decided by a larger margin than a typical deadline deal can provide. So are deadline deals irrelevant? Not at all. It’s just rarely worth it to give up a whole lot of potential future value.

That said, there are two changes I’d consider making, along with their pros and cons. The first change would be to cap the amount of value a team can receive in prospects. As I mentioned in the comments, the model currently has no constraint for roster space, thus it would theoretically make sense to trade a player worth $6 million in surplus value for six players worth $1 million values. This can and should be addressed. However, when you’re talking about a trade involving multiple prospects, the prospects don’t all arrive at the majors at the same time. You’re usually talking about a 23-year-old in Double-A, a 21-year-old in High-A, and an 18-year-old in Low-A. So there isn’t necessarily a significant roster constraint issue when it comes to how their value will be realized in MLB. Additionally, their surplus value still retains it’s full value in terms of trading capital. So if a team received $20 million surplus value worth of prospects, I have trouble on a logical level just arbitrarily knocking that down to $15 million or something, because it’s not what they received, and there is always the possibility of making more trades.

The second change I’d make is identifying a “replacement level” for prospects, at which surplus value is zero. The Indians received Connor Graham from the Rockies for Rafael Betancourt, and he may be exactly the type of guy I’m describing. He’s got a lot going for himself; a low-mid-90s fastball, a great groundball rate, a healthy strikeout rate, a relatively high draft position (fifth round), and general hugeness (6-foot-7, 235 pounds).

However, he’s also got significant control issues, and was in High-A four months short of his 24th birthday. Connor Graham has an outside chance of being very valuable, a moderate chance of being moderately valuable, and a good chance of having no significant value. If you ranked the top 125 pitching prospects in the game, he would not be amongst them. From part one, the only prospect I may slide into this category would be Adam Russell. However, if we choose to accept their baseline surplus value as zero, it would stand to reason that we also scale back the value of some of the prospects who are not considered top-100 talents. From part one, this would mean Dexter Carter, Brian Price, Nick Hagadone, and Jason Knapp. This would perhaps make an average difference of roughly $2 million for each one of those players.

The major problem here is that some of these guys (notably Knapp and Hagadone) would be on the top-100 list if it were republished today; they’re guys who were somewhat beneath the radar until having banner seasons so far in ’09. But perhaps this is a fair penalty, as someone relatively new on the scene is inherently more risky. At least this method does avoid the issues of artificially subtracting value that exist with the ‘quantity limiter’ idea, and perhaps we can be comfortable just subjectively slotting whether or not somebody is one of the 250 or so best prospects in the game (or whatever number we end up being comfortable with).

Okay, onto the deals.

Matt Holliday from Oakland to St. Louis for Brett Wallace, Clayton Mortenson and Shane Peterson

One other thing that deserves mention: by saying the Cardinals “lost” or gave up $4.35 million of surplus value, that is the present value of a loss to be “paid” over the six to eight years that it will take the prospects in this deal to realize their pre-free agency value. $4.35 million is not a huge figure, and furthermore, Peterson and Mortenson are pretty much examples of the “replacement-level prospect” described above.

In other words, I love this deal for the Cardinals. If anybody should be mortgaging big future chips for a deadline run, it’s them, and Holliday is the type of player who really makes a large difference to your playoff odds.

Sure, Wallace is a blue chip prospect; Baseball America him the 40th-best prospect in the game, and that may be selling him well short. Losing him is assuaged significantly by the fact that if Holliday walks, St. Louis will have two additional draft picks before the second round in 2010. Besides, you weren’t going to get Matt Holliday for a bag of balls.

Furthermore, I could absolutely see Holliday deciding to stay in St. Louis. He may be a Boras client, but he’s a poster boy for the heartland; he’s from Oklahoma and is a married man who probably doesn’t want to raise his two young sons in New York City. And he loves playing in the National League. Unless Atlanta has the bucks to make a play for him (which I find unlikely), I’m not sure there’s a destination Holliday would prefer to St. Louis.

I’ve scouted Shane Peterson. While he’s had quite a nice year for himself thus far, he’s not a guy who is very deep in terms of either tools or projection. And the production, while quite strong, has not been so overwhelming that it’s really worth getting excited over. Mortenson’s largest qualification is that he’s never been totally shelled, but he’s never shown the least bit of excellence either.

Freddy Sanchez to the Giants for Tim Alderson

The evaluation of this deals hinges on one’s perception from Alderson, who I slipped into the 50-75 prospect range despite his preseason Baseball America ranking of 46th based on reports that his stuff has been slipping. However, he’s still 20 years old and is a well-above-average starter in Double-A—that’s a rare commodity.

The Giants needed to do something to bolster their anemic offense, and Sanchez will help somewhat. But their downside is pretty large here; not only with Alderson, but if Sanchez gets the other 180 or so plate appearances he needs to reach 650, his 2010 option for $10 million vests automatically. (And barring injury, it will—otherwise, why was he acquired?). That’s a pretty steep price, and if the 2008 or 2005 version of Sanchez shows up next year—an increasing possibility as he creeps higher into his 30s—it’s a big ‘ole stinker.

That’s quite a generous 2010 projection for Sanchez, and quite a conservative overall projection for Alderson. I’ll grant that the Giants had to do something. But they paid pretty dearly in terms of risk for quite a lukewarm upside.

In fact, let’s use what I described as the most valuable aspects of this model—the ability to evaluate ranges of outcomes—to see how bad things might turn out for the Giants. Let’s say Alderson becomes basically a solid no. 2 starter, and Sanchez next year plays like he did in ’08 after his option vests.

Yikes. Quite a doozy for San Francisco. Of course, that’s a bad (though certainly not worst case) scenario for the Giants. But the reason I don’t like this deal is that the opposite is not a real possibility. In other words, the best thing they could hope for is that they get a couple months of an okay-but-not-great second baseman and increase their playoff odds very slightly, and Alderson never turns out. Lots of potential for downside, not so much for upside.

Orlando Cabrera to the Twins from the A’s for Tyler Landendorf

The A’s traded Cabrera, Holliday, and $500,000 for Brett Wallace and three guys who could be generously labeled ‘projects’ without very large upside. I really don’t like this deadline for them.

“Type A” is in quotes there, and knocked down in value from $7 million to $2 million, because Cabrera’s contract states the club agrees not to offer him arbitration. So the only way the Twins get comp picks here is if Cabrera signs before December 1, which is pretty unlikely.

It’s probably not nearly as dramatic a move as Twins fans would have liked to see, and Cabrera is indeed quite unlikely to be any sort of game-changer for the Twins playoff hopes. But he helps a bit, and it’s a move that was a no-brainer to make.

Nick Johnson to the Marlins from the Nationals for Aaron Tompson

Nick Johnson should formally add the words “if healthy” to his birth name, because they’re always used there anyway. That projection assumes Johnson is as likely to finish out the year healthy as he has been for the past three years, so it’s ugly. The Marlins did very well here, though the Nats are paying the salary, and Aaron Thompson is a big-time project. Their upside is pretty large, especially considering that he’s effectively taking the at-bats of Bonifacio. The Marlins could wind up with around a two-win (and salary-free) deadline upgrade here. Teams usually give up two of their top five prospects for that.

Jarrod Washburn to Detroit from Seattle for Luke French and Mauricio Robles

Hmmm. I’d like to write this off for the Tigers as one of those ‘had to do something’ moves, and maybe I can.

A lot of that depends on Luke French. Until this season, French was a guy who got by on control and home run prevention (despite lacking a very strong groundball rate). He had abysmal strikeout rates until seemingly figuring out how to miss a bat in ’09. He’s still quite a low-upside guy, and I’m not concerned the Tigers will seriously regret his loss. It’s more that I’m wondering if the Tigers actually made an upgrade here.

“But wait… Jarrod Washburn is amongst the league leaders in ERA!” Yes, but in reality, he’s still exactly what he’s been the last two seasons: a fifth starter. The right combination of extreme BABIP luck, a flukish dip in home run rate, and Safeco Field can do wonders for anyone. The Tigers aren’t fools, and certainly gave some consideration to these issues. But I think the shiny ERA and recognizable name still helped foster the notion that they might actually be getting a meaningful shot in the arm here. They’re not.

French, Robles (who seems pretty high upside, even if he’s a long ways off), and a relatively hefty salary addition are a lot to give up for six runs (which may be a pretty generous estimate).

MLB – Deadline Trade Breakdown

Posted in MLB

College Football – 2009 Bowl Predictions!

Event Day Games — Thu, 13 Aug 2009 02:55:12 +0000

Yes it is only August. Yes the season hasn’t started but SI has their 2009 Bowl Predictions up, enjoy!

College Football – 2009 College Football Bowl Predictions

If you are catching College Football Fevor like the rest of us at EDG, come join the College Football Pick’Em Challenge, link found here: College Football – Event Day Games Pick Em Challenge

Posted in College Football

MLB – Alex Rios Waiver Claim, Brilliant or Horrible?

Event Day Games — Thu, 13 Aug 2009 02:51:08 +0000

A lot of debate is going on about if the White Sox made a smart move by taking Alex Rios off waivers. Here Fan Graphs takes a pretty staunch position that White Sox General Manager Kenny Williams made a stellar move.

Mr. Ricciardi, you drive a hard bargain. You traded away your team’s best position player and in return you get…nothing! The scene from Dumb and Dumber keeps popping into my head where Lloyd proudly breaks the news to Harry that he traded the van for a moped. “Just when I thought you couldn’t possibly be any dumber, you go and do something like this… and totally redeem yourself!” At least Lloyd got a moped, and Rios is hardly an ’84 Sheepdog. This is just so completely absurd.

Dave Cameron already has enlightened us as to why the $60 million remaining on Alex Rios contract hardly makes it a bad contract, but I’ll recap it quickly. Rios currently has a .329 wOBA, low for his standards and likely driven by bad luck. His batting average on balls in play is currently way below his career average. There’s just nothing in his peripheral stats to suggest that he’s fallen apart. Rios is a prime candidate to bounce back. His ZiPS projection calls for a .351 wOBA going forward.

Rios is having a down year defensively according to UZR (-.7) but in the last three seasons in right field he’s been one of the best defensive outfielders in the game – +15.5 last season, +9 the two seasons prior to that. The Fielding Bible also gives him high marks — +43 plays over the last three years, the 3rd highest total for right fielders behind Franklin Gutierrez and Randy Winn. He has been good to superb in right field, so I think it’s safe to say Rios will at least be average patrolling center in the Cell. His most similar fielders in the Scouting Report by the Fans is littered with center fielders.

White Sox center fielders have been the definition of replacement level with their combined .269 wOBA, so Rios probably adds a full win to the White Sox down the stretch, increasing their odds of making the playoffs while not costing them a prospect. The South Siders have roughly $35 million coming off the books this fall, so Williams has done his holiday shopping early with the additions of Peavy and Rios, while helping his chances now. There’s some gambling going on here taking on these large contracts, but Rios is a much safer bet than Peavy.

Ricciardi has to have sealed his fate by now. He’s handed out several bad contracts during his tenure and then admits he made a mistake by giving away the one contract that’s actually fair value. And he bases his admission to this “mistake” on a few months of flukiness. You can’t run a fantasy team like this and win, let alone a major league team. Rios and his contract is much more of a cornerstone than it is an albatross.

MLB – White Sox Alex Rios Acquisition

Posted in MLB